Dear Reader,
With Joe Biden’s official announcement that he will seek re-election in 2024, the stage is now set for a re-match between he and Donald Trump.
I think I can speak on behalf of all Americans when I say, “How on God’s green earth is this happening? Haven’t we suffered enough?”
In a nation of 330 million people how did we end-up with these two bozos facing off against one another for the job of most powerful person in the world - not once, but twice?
Both of these men have their ardent supporters but, on the whole, America does not want to see this match-up again.
The Republicans are suffering from a coordination failure. Almost nobody in the party establishment actually wants Trump to be President again, but none of them is willing to tackle him head-on for fear of being run over by his supporters.
The Democrats, who have shown that they do know how to clear the field when they want to, have a different problem: if Biden were to step down it would unleash a factional war that would destroy the party because few people believe that Kamala Harris can win a general election, but nobody wants to stand in the way of the historic firsts that she represents.
But beyond these practical, tactical, considerations lurks a bigger problem: difficult though it may be to believe, if either party were to jettison the top of their ticket, they would face a massive step down in sheer political talent.
Joe Biden, it is widely agreed, is not the politician he once was. Even in his prime, his tendency to overdo the “kiss me I’m Irish” blarney routine led him into all sorts of controversies and cul-de-sacs. But he has an ability to connect with people on a basic human level that very few of his Democratic rivals can replicate.
Donald Trump also cuts a diminished figure in comparison to the man who barnstormed his way to the Presidency in 2016. Losing an election, being indicted and getting sued will do that to a fella. It will be interesting to see how he performs in his upcoming CNN town hall, whether he can still summon the old juice. But on his day, he could rev-up a Republican crowd like no other figure in the party.
As you may have noticed, I try to stay away from partisan politics here at The Armchair Strategist.
I’ve talked about specific policy issues as they relate to my broader interest in seeing us create an economy and society in which people can thrive, but I’m not here to advocate for one party or the other.
I also think it’s fruitless to speculate about who is likely to win – certainly at this stage of the process but probably ever. If 2016 and 2020 taught me anything it is that politics is no better than Hollywood, of which William Goldman famously said, “Nobody knows anything.”
My interest in this topic is talent. Specifically, the lack of it in American presidential politics.
I’ve interviewed hundreds of people for every role from analyst to partner. I served for years on various promotion committees. I’ve spent countless hours with CEOs discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each member of their executive team, helping to craft a coaching agenda for those who need it and a succession plan for those who are beyond help. And I’ve met with literally hundreds of management teams in deal situations where you get only a few hours to form an impression of who is a keeper and who isn’t.
While Biden and Trump would be the nominees if the election were to be held tomorrow, it’s actually going to be held in November of next year. A lot can happen in eighteen months. In the meantime there is a long list of people circling the process and weighing their options.
So, in this edition of the newsletter I’m going to run the slide rule over some of the people who have offered, or who might offer, themselves as an alternative to the two incumbents.
It’s not a pretty picture.
Fair warning, it’s a near certainty that I’m about to say something mean about somebody you admire. The good news is that, tribalism being what it is, if you wince when I criticize the people you like, you’ll enjoy it when I stick the boot into the people you hate - and there’s always a lot more of the latter than the former, no matter who you are. On balance there’s plenty of fun to be had for everybody.
Until you realize that these people are seeking to rule over us.
Seriously, these people are auditioning for the toughest job on the planet. Whether you agree or disagree with my assessments, just ask yourself, “Would I hire this person to run something I care about?” Set aside your partisan preferences and be honest.
The answers may surprise you!
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Armchair Strategist to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.